Twins @ Rockies [ Rockies +162 / 12 ]

Twins | 45-49 (47.9%) Zebby Matthews (R) | 1-1 | WHIP: 1.47 | ERA: 5.21
Rockies | 23-74 (23.7%) Antonio Senzatela (R) | 3-13 | WHIP: 1.89 | ERA: 6.60

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Twins
Starting Pitcher:
3/4
Bullpen:
3/3
Team Batting:
2/3
Matchup:4
Est. fair odds: -163 to -187
Implied win prob: 61.98% to 65.16%
Rockies
Starting Pitcher:
2/4
Bullpen:
1/3
Team Batting:
1/3
Matchup:-4
Est. fair odds: +163 to +187
Implied win prob: 34.84% to 38.02%
Twins Situational Notes

Rockies Situational Notes

Twins Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
7/20COL [ 0 ]German Marquez (R)MIN -
COL -		-MIN [ 0 ]Joe Ryan (R)
7/19COL [ 0 ]Antonio Senzatela (R)MIN -194
COL +162		12MIN [ 0 ]Zebby Matthews (R)
7/18COL [ 6 ]Kyle Freeland (L)MIN -166
COL +146		10.5MIN [ 4 ]Chris Paddack (R)
7/13MIN [ 1 ]Simeon Woods Richardson (R)MIN -
PIT +136		-PIT [ 2 ]Mitch Keller (R)
7/12MIN [ 12 ]Cole Sands (R)MIN -136
PIT +116		9.5PIT [ 4 ]Mike Burrows (R)
7/11MIN [ 2 ]Joe Ryan (R)MIN -144
PIT +122		7PIT [ 1 ]Paul Skenes (R)
7/10MIN [ 1 ]Chris Paddack (R)MIN -102
CHC -116		9.5CHC [ 8 ]Colin Rea (R)
7/9MIN [ 4 ]David Festa (R)MIN -112
CHC -104		9.5CHC [ 2 ]Cade Horton (R)
7/8MIN [ 8 ]Simeon Woods Richardson (R)MIN +114
CHC -136		9CHC [ 1 ]Shota Imanaga (L)
7/6MIN [ 5 ]Joe Ryan (R)MIN -132
TBR +112		8.5TBR [ 7 ]Drew Rasmussen (R)
Rockies Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
7/20COL [ 0 ]German Marquez (R)COL -
MIN -		-MIN [ 0 ]Joe Ryan (R)
7/19COL [ 0 ]Antonio Senzatela (R)COL +162
MIN -194		12MIN [ 0 ]Zebby Matthews (R)
7/18COL [ 6 ]Kyle Freeland (L)COL +140
MIN -174		10.5MIN [ 4 ]Chris Paddack (R)
7/13CIN [ 4 ]Nick Martinez (R)COL -
CIN -250		-COL [ 2 ]Austin Gomber (L)
7/12CIN [ 4 ]Brady Singer (R)COL -
CIN -290		-COL [ 3 ]Bradley Blalock (R)
7/11CIN [ 2 ]Chase Burns (R)COL +198
CIN -250		9.5COL [ 3 ]German Marquez (R)
7/9BOS [ 10 ]Lucas Giolito (R)COL +245
BOS -335		9COL [ 2 ]Antonio Senzatela (R)
7/8BOS [ 10 ]Brayan Bello (R)COL +200
BOS -290		9COL [ 2 ]Kyle Freeland (L)
7/7BOS [ 9 ]Richard Fitts (R)COL +188
BOS -250		9.5COL [ 3 ]Austin Gomber (L)
7/6COL [ 6 ]Chase Dollander (R)COL +102
CHW -120		11CHW [ 4 ]Shane Smith (R)

Zebby Matthews Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
6/4ATH [ 1 ]MIN [ 6 ]-1349.55434011Justin Sterner (R)
5/30SEA [ 6 ]MIN [ 12 ]12877716244Bryan Woo (R)
5/24MIN [ 5 ]KCR [ 4 ]-12280000000Michael Wacha (R)
5/18MIL [ 5 ]MIN [ 2 ]1227.53535044Freddy Peralta (R)
9/28MIN [ 2 ]BAL [ 9 ]-1188.53537266Matt Bowman (R)
3.64.224.40.833
Antonio Senzatela Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
7/9BOS [ 10 ]COL [ 2 ]24595318244Lucas Giolito (R)
7/4COL [ 2 ]CHW [ 3 ]102115.67417133Adrian Houser (R)
6/28MIL [ 5 ]COL [ 0 ]2408.54.33238155Quinn Priester (R)
6/22COL [ 4 ]ARI [ 2 ]144125.33514022Brandon Pfaadt (R)
6/17WSN [ 6 ]COL [ 10 ]1689.55033001Michael Soroka (R)
5.072.81.860.82.83
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Zebby Matthews F51-3-0 (25%)0-1-0 (0%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-2-0 (0%)
Zebby Matthews3-1 (75%)1-0 (100%)1-0 (100%)0-0 (-)1-1 (50%)
Antonio Senzatela F55-12-2 (29.4%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)3-5-2 (37.5%)2-7-0 (22.2%)
Antonio Senzatela5-14 (26.3%)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)3-7 (30%)2-7 (22.2%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Zebby Matthews F52-1-0 (66.7%)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)
Zebby Matthews2-2-0 (50%)1-0-0 (100%)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)1-1-0 (50%)
Antonio Senzatela F58-9-1 (47.1%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)5-5-0 (50%)3-4-1 (42.9%)
Antonio Senzatela7-11-1 (38.9%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)3-6-1 (33.3%)4-5-0 (44.4%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Twins vs. RHP F534-32-15 (51.5%)16-14-5 (53.3%)8-9-3 (47.1%)2-2-0 (50%)6-7-6 (46.2%)
Twins vs. RHP42-39 (51.9%)21-14 (60%)10-10 (50%)2-2 (50%)8-11 (42.1%)
Rockies vs. RHP F519-42-12 (31.1%)1-2-0 (33.3%)0-0-0 (-)8-14-7 (36.4%)10-26-5 (27.8%)
Rockies vs. RHP20-53 (27.4%)1-2 (33.3%)0-0 (-)8-21 (27.6%)11-30 (26.8%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Twins vs. RHP F537-36-6 (50.7%)15-14-5 (51.7%)8-12-0 (40%)2-2-0 (50%)9-8-1 (52.9%)
Twins vs. RHP36-41-4 (46.8%)18-16-1 (52.9%)7-12-1 (36.8%)1-3-0 (25%)7-10-2 (41.2%)
Rockies vs. RHP F530-36-4 (45.5%)2-1-0 (66.7%)0-0-0 (-)17-11-1 (60.7%)11-24-3 (31.4%)
Rockies vs. RHP29-42-2 (40.8%)2-1-0 (66.7%)0-0-0 (-)10-18-1 (35.7%)17-23-1 (42.5%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Zebby Matthews2-2 (50%)0-1 (0%)1-0 (100%)0-0 (-)1-1 (50%)
Twins45-51 (46.9%)17-25 (40.5%)9-14 (39.1%)3-2 (60%)16-10 (61.5%)
Antonio Senzatela7-12 (36.8%)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)5-5 (50%)2-7 (22.2%)
Rockies38-60 (38.8%)1-2 (33.3%)0-0 (-)16-28 (36.4%)21-30 (41.2%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Zebby Matthews2-2 (50%)0-1 (0%)1-0 (100%)0-0 (-)1-1 (50%)
Twins51-48 (51.5%)19-23 (45.2%)17-6 (73.9%)2-3 (40%)12-14 (46.2%)
Antonio Senzatela9-10 (47.4%)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)4-6 (40%)5-4 (55.6%)
Rockies54-45 (54.5%)2-1 (66.7%)0-0 (-)27-17 (61.4%)25-26 (49%)


Batting Matchup
TwinsRockies
97TG97
4.2R/G3.5
114HR92
0.241AVG0.231
48SB53
18CS24
TwinsRockies
0.157ISO0.15
0.284BABIP0.295
0.309OBP0.292
0.398SLG0.381
0.311wOBA0.295
98wRC+74
TwinsRockies
7.7BB%7.1
22.2K%26.4
0.35BB/K0.27
9Barrel%8.3
42.9HardHit%40.6
9.2WAR-2.6

Pitching Matchup
Zebby MatthewsAntonio Senzatela
4G19
4GS18
19IP91.1
4.8IP/G4.8
1W3
1L13
67.5LOB%66.6
Zebby MatthewsAntonio Senzatela
11.84K/94.83
3.79BB/93.25
20.5K/BB%3.6
32.7GB%47.9
38.8FB%31.6
0.95HR/91.58
10.5HR/FB%14.4
Zebby MatthewsAntonio Senzatela
0.375BABIP0.367
5.21ERA6.6
3.65xERA7.04
3.08FIP5.5
3.2xFIP5.04
1.47WHIP1.89
3.4SIERA5.14
0.6WAR-0.1

Bullpen Matchup
TwinsRockies
3.42BPU/G3.35
3.6IP/G3.9
17W12
22L19
19SV18
13BS17
69.8LOB%69
TwinsRockies
9.15K/97.72
3.01BB/94.07
15.8K/BB%9.2
46.4GB%45.4
33.6FB%34.8
0.79HR/91.3
9.1HR/FB%13.7
TwinsRockies
0.322BABIP0.308
4.13ERA4.91
3.33FIP4.7
3.62xFIP4.39
1.33WHIP1.49
3.41SIERA4.22
5.6WAR-0.3