Orioles @ Rays [ Rays -126 / 9 ]

Orioles | 43-54 (44.3%) Dean Kremer (R) | 8-7 | WHIP: 1.27 | ERA: 4.24
Rays | 51-47 (52%) Zack Littell (R) | 8-7 | WHIP: 1.08 | ERA: 3.56

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Orioles
Starting Pitcher:
2/4
Bullpen:
3/3
Team Batting:
2/3
Matchup:3
Est. fair odds: -142 to -162
Implied win prob: 58.68% to 61.83%
Rays
Starting Pitcher:
2/4
Bullpen:
1/3
Team Batting:
1/3
Matchup:-3
Est. fair odds: +142 to +162
Implied win prob: 38.17% to 41.32%
Orioles Situational Notes

Rays Situational Notes

Orioles Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
7/20TBR [ 0 ]Ryan Pepiot (R)BAL -
TBR -		-BAL [ 0 ]Trevor Rogers (L)
7/19TBR [ 0 ]Zack Littell (R)BAL +108
TBR -126		9BAL [ 0 ]Dean Kremer (R)
7/18TBR [ 11 ]Taj Bradley (R)BAL +106
TBR -124		9BAL [ 1 ]Charlie Morton (R)
7/13BAL [ 1 ]Brandon Young (R)BAL -
MIA +120		-MIA [ 11 ]Eury Perez (R)
7/12BAL [ 0 ]Trevor Rogers (L)BAL -
MIA +140		-MIA [ 6 ]Janson Junk (R)
7/11BAL [ 5 ]Dean Kremer (R)BAL -132
MIA +118		9MIA [ 2 ]Edward Cabrera (R)
7/10BAL [ 7 ]Tomoyuki Sugano (R)BAL +108
NYM -126		10.5NYM [ 3 ]Brandon Waddell (L)
7/10BAL [ 3 ]Charlie Morton (R)BAL +122
NYM -144		9.5NYM [ 1 ]David Peterson (L)
7/10BAL [ 0 ]Charlie Morton (R)BAL -
NYM -		-NYM [ 0 ]TBD (-)
7/9BAL [ 0 ]Tomoyuki Sugano (R)BAL +126
NYM -164		9.5NYM [ 0 ]David Peterson (L)
Rays Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
7/20TBR [ 0 ]Ryan Pepiot (R)TBR -
BAL -		-BAL [ 0 ]Trevor Rogers (L)
7/19TBR [ 0 ]Zack Littell (R)TBR -126
BAL +108		9BAL [ 0 ]Dean Kremer (R)
7/18TBR [ 11 ]Taj Bradley (R)TBR -124
BAL +106		9BAL [ 1 ]Charlie Morton (R)
7/13BOS [ 4 ]Brayan Bello (R)TBR -
BOS -120		-TBR [ 1 ]Ryan Pepiot (R)
7/12BOS [ 1 ]Garrett Crochet (L)TBR -
BOS -174		-TBR [ 0 ]Shane Baz (R)
7/11BOS [ 5 ]Hunter Dobbins (R)TBR -106
BOS -112		9TBR [ 4 ]Drew Rasmussen (R)
7/10BOS [ 4 ]Walker Buehler (R)TBR -
BOS -116		-TBR [ 3 ]Taj Bradley (R)
7/9DET [ 3 ]Reese Olson (R)TBR +124
DET -152		8TBR [ 7 ]Zack Littell (R)
7/8DET [ 4 ]Jack Flaherty (R)TBR +110
DET -126		8TBR [ 2 ]Ryan Pepiot (R)
7/7DET [ 5 ]Keider Montero (R)TBR -120
DET -108		8.5TBR [ 1 ]Shane Baz (R)

Dean Kremer Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
7/11BAL [ 5 ]MIA [ 2 ]-13297713000Edward Cabrera (R)
7/5ATL [ 6 ]BAL [ 9 ]13094.33318255Aaron Bummer (L)
6/29BAL [ 5 ]TBR [ 1 ]-1069.57613000Taj Bradley (R)
6/22NYY [ 4 ]BAL [ 2 ]1649.55.67715011Will Warren (R)
6/17TBR [ 1 ]BAL [ 5 ]1109.55424011Zack Littell (R)
5.85.41.24.60.41.41.4
Zack Littell Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
7/9DET [ 3 ]TBR [ 7 ]12485.67426033Reese Olson (R)
7/4MIN [ 4 ]TBR [ 3 ]102106524111Chris Paddack (R)
6/28BAL [ 3 ]TBR [ 11 ]-1029.57523111Zach Eflin (R)
6/22TBR [ 3 ]DET [ 9 ]-1128.55504011Casey Mize (R)
6/17TBR [ 1 ]BAL [ 5 ]-1309.56307133Dean Kremer (R)
5.934.41.24.80.61.81.8
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Dean Kremer F59-8-2 (52.9%)4-1-1 (80%)1-3-0 (25%)0-1-0 (0%)4-3-1 (57.1%)
Dean Kremer9-10 (47.4%)5-1 (83.3%)1-3 (25%)0-1 (0%)3-5 (37.5%)
Zack Littell F55-11-3 (31.3%)1-4-1 (20%)1-0-0 (100%)0-1-1 (0%)3-6-0 (33.3%)
Zack Littell10-9 (52.6%)3-3 (50%)1-0 (100%)1-1 (50%)5-4 (55.6%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Dean Kremer F510-7-1 (58.8%)3-3-0 (50%)2-0-1 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)4-4-0 (50%)
Dean Kremer6-12-1 (33.3%)2-4-0 (33.3%)1-3-0 (25%)0-1-0 (0%)3-4-1 (42.9%)
Zack Littell F57-11-0 (38.9%)1-5-0 (16.7%)1-0-0 (100%)0-1-0 (0%)5-4-0 (55.6%)
Zack Littell6-12-1 (33.3%)1-4-1 (20%)0-1-0 (0%)0-2-0 (0%)4-5-0 (44.4%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Orioles vs. RHP F531-29-8 (51.7%)13-9-2 (59.1%)2-5-1 (28.6%)5-1-0 (83.3%)11-14-3 (44%)
Orioles vs. RHP31-37 (45.6%)12-12 (50%)3-5 (37.5%)3-3 (50%)12-16 (42.9%)
Rays vs. RHP F536-29-8 (55.4%)16-10-3 (61.5%)4-3-1 (57.1%)1-4-0 (20%)14-11-2 (56%)
Rays vs. RHP39-34 (53.4%)20-9 (69%)4-4 (50%)1-4 (20%)13-14 (48.1%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Orioles vs. RHP F534-26-2 (56.7%)16-7-0 (69.6%)3-4-0 (42.9%)5-1-0 (83.3%)10-13-2 (43.5%)
Orioles vs. RHP30-35-3 (46.2%)14-9-1 (60.9%)2-6-0 (25%)3-3-0 (50%)9-17-2 (34.6%)
Rays vs. RHP F528-34-7 (45.2%)10-14-3 (41.7%)3-4-1 (42.9%)2-2-0 (50%)12-11-3 (52.2%)
Rays vs. RHP32-37-4 (46.4%)13-14-2 (48.1%)2-6-0 (25%)2-3-0 (40%)13-13-1 (50%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Dean Kremer10-9 (52.6%)5-1 (83.3%)1-3 (25%)0-1 (0%)4-4 (50%)
Orioles40-54 (42.6%)12-24 (33.3%)5-8 (38.5%)6-5 (54.5%)17-17 (50%)
Zack Littell10-8 (55.6%)1-5 (16.7%)1-0 (100%)1-1 (50%)7-2 (77.8%)
Rays51-43 (54.3%)17-24 (41.5%)4-4 (50%)5-6 (45.5%)25-9 (73.5%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Dean Kremer9-10 (47.4%)2-4 (33.3%)2-2 (50%)0-1 (0%)5-3 (62.5%)
Orioles42-54 (43.8%)15-21 (41.7%)9-4 (69.2%)4-7 (36.4%)14-20 (41.2%)
Zack Littell9-10 (47.4%)2-4 (33.3%)0-1 (0%)1-1 (50%)6-3 (66.7%)
Rays48-50 (49%)24-17 (58.5%)1-7 (12.5%)6-5 (54.5%)16-18 (47.1%)


Batting Matchup
OriolesRays
96TG98
4.1R/G4.7
111HR109
0.238AVG0.259
67SB124
22CS32
OriolesRays
0.158ISO0.15
0.286BABIP0.309
0.304OBP0.321
0.396SLG0.409
0.306wOBA0.319
96wRC+104
OriolesRays
7.5BB%7.8
23.7K%22
0.32BB/K0.36
8.8Barrel%7.8
43HardHit%40.3
7.5WAR12.6

Pitching Matchup
Dean KremerZack Littell
19G19
18GS19
108.1IP116.1
5.7IP/G6.1
8W8
7L7
72LOB%87.3
Dean KremerZack Littell
7.31K/96.19
2.24BB/91.32
13.4K/BB%13.6
37.7GB%41.6
42.7FB%41.6
1.16HR/91.86
9.7HR/FB%16.1
Dean KremerZack Littell
0.298BABIP0.252
4.24ERA3.56
4.11xERA4.61
3.91FIP4.96
4.21xFIP4.18
1.27WHIP1.08
4.19SIERA4.19
1.7WAR0.6

Bullpen Matchup
OriolesRays
3.53BPU/G3.09
3.8IP/G3.3
14W15
17L17
23SV21
12BS15
70.5LOB%75.4
OriolesRays
9.66K/99.17
3.96BB/93.27
14.6K/BB%15.4
42.7GB%41.7
38.4FB%39.1
1.28HR/91.27
13.4HR/FB%13
OriolesRays
0.31BABIP0.289
4.7ERA3.9
4.21FIP4.13
3.94xFIP3.92
1.4WHIP1.28
3.65SIERA3.55
1.4WAR1.9