Padres @ Nationals [ Nationals +120 / 9 ]

Padres | 51-44 (53.7%) Yu Darvish (R) | 0-1 | WHIP: 1.68 | ERA: 6.48
Nationals | 38-59 (39.2%) Mitchell Parker (L) | 5-10 | WHIP: 1.42 | ERA: 5.12

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Padres
Starting Pitcher:
2/4
Bullpen:
2/3
Team Batting:
1/3
Matchup:-1
Est. fair odds: +111 to +124
Implied win prob: 44.64% to 47.39%
Nationals
Starting Pitcher:
3/4
Bullpen:
1/3
Team Batting:
2/3
Matchup:1
Est. fair odds: -111 to -124
Implied win prob: 52.61% to 55.36%
Padres Situational Notes

Nationals Situational Notes

Padres Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
7/20WSN [ 0 ]MacKenzie Gore (L)SDP -
WSN -		-SDP [ 0 ]Nick Pivetta (R)
7/19WSN [ 0 ]Mitchell Parker (L)SDP -142
WSN +120		9SDP [ 0 ]Yu Darvish (R)
7/18WSN [ 2 ]Michael Soroka (R)SDP -156
WSN +124		8.5SDP [ 7 ]Dylan Cease (R)
7/13SDP [ 1 ]Nick Pivetta (R)SDP -
PHI -130		-PHI [ 2 ]Cristopher Sanchez (L)
7/12SDP [ 5 ]Yu Darvish (R)SDP +144
PHI -172		7.5PHI [ 4 ]Zack Wheeler (R)
7/11SDP [ 4 ]Ryan Bergert (R)SDP +136
PHI -162		8PHI [ 2 ]Ranger Suarez (L)
7/10SDP [ 4 ]Randy Vasquez (R)SDP +106
ARI -124		8.5ARI [ 3 ]Eduardo Rodriguez (L)
7/9SDP [ 2 ]Dylan Cease (R)SDP -158
ARI +134		8ARI [ 8 ]Brandon Pfaadt (R)
7/8SDP [ 1 ]Nick Pivetta (R)SDP -126
ARI +120		7.5ARI [ 0 ]Merrill Kelly (R)
7/7SDP [ 3 ]Yu Darvish (R)SDP -122
ARI +106		8ARI [ 6 ]Zac Gallen (R)
Nationals Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
7/20WSN [ 0 ]MacKenzie Gore (L)WSN -
SDP -		-SDP [ 0 ]Nick Pivetta (R)
7/19WSN [ 0 ]Mitchell Parker (L)WSN +120
SDP -142		9SDP [ 0 ]Yu Darvish (R)
7/18WSN [ 2 ]Michael Soroka (R)WSN +132
SDP -146		8.5SDP [ 7 ]Dylan Cease (R)
7/13MIL [ 8 ]Freddy Peralta (R)WSN -
MIL -290		-WSN [ 1 ]Jake Irvin (R)
7/12MIL [ 6 ]Brandon Woodruff (R)WSN +220
MIL -270		9WSN [ 5 ]Shinnosuke Ogasawara (L)
7/11MIL [ 8 ]DL Hall (L)WSN +172
MIL -205		8.5WSN [ 3 ]Mitchell Parker (L)
7/10STL [ 8 ]Miles Mikolas (R)WSN +120
STL -142		9WSN [ 1 ]Michael Soroka (R)
7/9STL [ 2 ]Andre Pallante (R)WSN +120
STL -142		7.5WSN [ 8 ]MacKenzie Gore (L)
7/8STL [ 4 ]Sonny Gray (R)WSN +176
STL -235		8.5WSN [ 2 ]Jake Irvin (R)
7/6WSN [ 4 ]Shinnosuke Ogasawara (L)WSN +200
BOS -245		8.5BOS [ 6 ]Garrett Crochet (L)

Yu Darvish Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
7/12SDP [ 5 ]PHI [ 4 ]1447.54.67235044Zack Wheeler (R)
7/7SDP [ 3 ]ARI [ 6 ]-12280000000Zac Gallen (R)
10/11LAD [ 2 ]SDP [ 0 ]12286.67413222Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)
10/6LAD [ 2 ]SDP [ 10 ]13087323011Jack Flaherty (R)
9/27ARI [ 3 ]SDP [ 5 ]10895.33433133Merrill Kelly (R)
4.732.61.82.80.622
Mitchell Parker Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
7/11MIL [ 8 ]WSN [ 3 ]1728.54.67038177DL Hall (L)
7/5WSN [ 3 ]BOS [ 10 ]-1009.564110149Walker Buehler (R)
6/29LAA [ 4 ]WSN [ 7 ]114105336033Jack Kochanowicz (R)
6/23SDP [ 6 ]WSN [ 10 ]1508.56126233Stephen Kolek (R)
6/18WSN [ 1 ]COL [ 3 ]-1789.50000000German Marquez (R)
4.331.61.860.83.44.4
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Yu Darvish F50-2-0 (0%)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)
Yu Darvish1-1 (50%)0-1 (0%)0-0 (-)1-0 (100%)0-0 (-)
Mitchell Parker F56-12-1 (33.3%)0-0-1 (-)0-1-0 (0%)4-4-0 (50%)2-6-0 (25%)
Mitchell Parker9-10 (47.4%)0-1 (0%)1-0 (100%)5-3 (62.5%)3-5 (37.5%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Yu Darvish F52-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)
Yu Darvish2-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)
Mitchell Parker F58-6-3 (57.1%)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)4-3-1 (57.1%)3-2-2 (60%)
Mitchell Parker9-9-1 (50%)0-1-0 (0%)1-0-0 (100%)3-5-0 (37.5%)4-3-1 (57.1%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Padres vs. LHP F516-14-2 (53.3%)6-5-0 (54.5%)2-1-0 (66.7%)3-2-0 (60%)3-6-2 (33.3%)
Padres vs. LHP18-14 (56.3%)7-4 (63.6%)1-2 (33.3%)3-2 (60%)5-6 (45.5%)
Nationals vs. RHP F524-37-10 (39.3%)0-3-3 (0%)1-1-2 (50%)11-12-1 (47.8%)12-20-4 (37.5%)
Nationals vs. RHP29-42 (40.8%)1-5 (16.7%)3-1 (75%)10-14 (41.7%)15-21 (41.7%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Padres vs. LHP F514-16-1 (46.7%)5-5-0 (50%)3-0-0 (100%)3-2-0 (60%)3-7-1 (30%)
Padres vs. LHP10-22-0 (31.3%)4-7-0 (36.4%)3-0-0 (100%)1-4-0 (20%)2-9-0 (18.2%)
Nationals vs. RHP F531-32-4 (49.2%)0-4-0 (0%)2-2-0 (50%)13-9-1 (59.1%)15-17-3 (46.9%)
Nationals vs. RHP41-28-2 (59.4%)1-5-0 (16.7%)3-1-0 (75%)16-8-0 (66.7%)20-14-2 (58.8%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Yu Darvish1-1 (50%)0-1 (0%)0-0 (-)1-0 (100%)0-0 (-)
Padres52-43 (54.7%)16-21 (43.2%)5-7 (41.7%)10-2 (83.3%)21-13 (61.8%)
Mitchell Parker9-9 (50%)0-1 (0%)1-0 (100%)5-3 (62.5%)3-5 (37.5%)
Nationals48-47 (50.5%)1-9 (10%)2-3 (40%)18-17 (51.4%)27-18 (60%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Yu Darvish1-1 (50%)1-0 (100%)0-0 (-)0-1 (0%)0-0 (-)
Padres41-57 (41.8%)17-20 (45.9%)7-5 (58.3%)4-8 (33.3%)11-23 (32.4%)
Mitchell Parker13-6 (68.4%)0-1 (0%)0-1 (0%)7-1 (87.5%)5-3 (62.5%)
Nationals50-47 (51.5%)5-5 (50%)1-4 (20%)20-15 (57.1%)23-22 (51.1%)


Batting Matchup
PadresNationals
97TG97
4R/G4.3
84HR95
0.246AVG0.245
67SB82
18CS33
PadresNationals
0.129ISO0.143
0.286BABIP0.288
0.316OBP0.311
0.375SLG0.389
0.304wOBA0.307
98wRC+96
PadresNationals
8.7BB%7.8
18.9K%20.5
0.46BB/K0.38
7Barrel%7.6
36.6HardHit%40.7
9.7WAR5.6

Pitching Matchup
Yu DarvishMitchell Parker
2G19
2GS19
8.1IP102
4.1IP/G5.4
0W5
1L10
62.5LOB%62.4
Yu DarvishMitchell Parker
7.56K/95.82
6.48BB/93.53
2.5K/BB%5.8
62.5GB%37.1
25FB%41.8
0HR/91.15
0HR/FB%9.2
Yu DarvishMitchell Parker
0.32BABIP0.281
6.48ERA5.12
3.4xERA5.57
4.28FIP4.71
5.36xFIP5.11
1.68WHIP1.42
5.18SIERA5.16
0.1WAR0.8

Bullpen Matchup
PadresNationals
3.55BPU/G3.46
3.6IP/G3.5
29W15
18L14
34SV19
12BS14
74.8LOB%64.7
PadresNationals
9.17K/97.9
3.55BB/94.23
14.9K/BB%9
41.5GB%45
39.3FB%35.5
0.77HR/91.31
8.1HR/FB%13.5
PadresNationals
0.275BABIP0.311
3.22ERA5.97
3.49FIP4.94
3.95xFIP4.65
1.21WHIP1.53
3.61SIERA4.26
4.9WAR-0.7