Reds @ Mets [ Mets -178 / 8.5 ]

Reds | 51-47 (52%) Nick Martinez (R) | 7-9 | WHIP: 1.21 | ERA: 4.78
Mets | 55-43 (56.1%) Clay Holmes (R) | 8-4 | WHIP: 1.26 | ERA: 3.31

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Reds
Starting Pitcher:
2/4
Bullpen:
1/3
Team Batting:
1/3
Matchup:-2
Est. fair odds: +125 to +141
Implied win prob: 41.49% to 44.44%
Mets
Starting Pitcher:
2/4
Bullpen:
2/3
Team Batting:
2/3
Matchup:2
Est. fair odds: -125 to -141
Implied win prob: 55.56% to 58.51%
Reds Situational Notes

Mets Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Reds Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
7/20NYM [ 0 ]David Peterson (L)CIN -
NYM -		-CIN [ 0 ]Andrew Abbott (L)
7/19NYM [ 0 ]Clay Holmes (R)CIN +150
NYM -178		8.5CIN [ 0 ]Nick Martinez (R)
7/18NYM [ 4 ]Sean Manaea (L)CIN +136
NYM -158		8CIN [ 8 ]Nick Lodolo (L)
7/13CIN [ 4 ]Nick Martinez (R)CIN -
COL +205		-COL [ 2 ]Austin Gomber (L)
7/12CIN [ 4 ]Brady Singer (R)CIN -
COL +235		-COL [ 3 ]Bradley Blalock (R)
7/11CIN [ 2 ]Chase Burns (R)CIN -240
COL +205		9.5COL [ 3 ]German Marquez (R)
7/10CIN [ 6 ]Nick Lodolo (L)CIN -
MIA +140		-MIA [ 0 ]Cal Quantrill (R)
7/9CIN [ 7 ]Andrew Abbott (L)CIN -138
MIA +120		8.5MIA [ 2 ]Sandy Alcantara (R)
7/8CIN [ 2 ]Nick Martinez (R)CIN -120
MIA +104		9MIA [ 12 ]Eury Perez (R)
7/7CIN [ 1 ]Brady Singer (R)CIN -136
MIA +116		9.5MIA [ 5 ]Janson Junk (R)
Mets Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
7/20NYM [ 0 ]David Peterson (L)NYM -
CIN -		-CIN [ 0 ]Andrew Abbott (L)
7/19NYM [ 0 ]Clay Holmes (R)NYM -178
CIN +150		8.5CIN [ 0 ]Nick Martinez (R)
7/18NYM [ 4 ]Sean Manaea (L)NYM -162
CIN +134		8CIN [ 8 ]Nick Lodolo (L)
7/13KCR [ 3 ]Noah Cameron (L)NYM -
KCR -110		-NYM [ 2 ]Clay Holmes (R)
7/12KCR [ 1 ]Angel Zerpa (L)NYM -132
KCR +112		9NYM [ 3 ]Frankie Montas (R)
7/11KCR [ 3 ]Michael Wacha (R)NYM -134
KCR +114		9.5NYM [ 8 ]Kodai Senga (R)
7/10BAL [ 7 ]Tomoyuki Sugano (R)NYM -126
BAL +108		10.5NYM [ 3 ]Brandon Waddell (L)
7/10BAL [ 3 ]Charlie Morton (R)NYM -144
BAL +122		9.5NYM [ 1 ]David Peterson (L)
7/10BAL [ 0 ]Charlie Morton (R)NYM -
BAL -		-NYM [ 0 ]TBD (-)
7/9BAL [ 0 ]Tomoyuki Sugano (R)NYM -148
BAL +138		9.5NYM [ 0 ]David Peterson (L)

Nick Martinez Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
7/13CIN [ 4 ]COL [ 2 ]000000000Austin Gomber (L)
7/8CIN [ 2 ]MIA [ 12 ]-12090000000Eury Perez (R)
7/2BOS [ 4 ]CIN [ 8 ]1029.56.67209144Brennan Bernardino (R)
6/27CIN [ 8 ]SDP [ 1 ]11298621011Dylan Cease (R)
6/19CIN [ 5 ]MIN [ 12 ]-11292.67417377Chris Paddack (R)
3.472.40.63.40.82.42.4
Clay Holmes Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
7/13KCR [ 3 ]NYM [ 2 ]000000000Noah Cameron (L)
7/8BAL [ 6 ]NYM [ 7 ]-1309.50000000Brandon Young (R)
7/2NYM [ 2 ]MIL [ 7 ]-1268.55.33143122Freddy Peralta (R)
7/1NYM [ 0 ]MIL [ 0 ]-1308.50000000Freddy Peralta (R)
6/25NYM [ 7 ]ATL [ 3 ]-14695243111Didier Fuentes (R)
2.070.61.61.20.40.60.6
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Nick Martinez F58-8-2 (50%)3-2-0 (60%)1-0-1 (100%)1-2-1 (33.3%)2-4-0 (33.3%)
Nick Martinez6-12 (33.3%)3-2 (60%)0-2 (0%)1-3 (25%)1-5 (16.7%)
Clay Holmes F510-8-1 (55.6%)7-2-0 (77.8%)3-3-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)0-3-1 (0%)
Clay Holmes12-7 (63.2%)6-3 (66.7%)5-1 (83.3%)0-0 (-)1-3 (25%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Nick Martinez F58-8-1 (50%)3-1-1 (75%)0-2-0 (0%)1-3-0 (25%)3-2-0 (60%)
Nick Martinez8-9-1 (47.1%)2-3-0 (40%)0-2-0 (0%)1-2-1 (33.3%)4-2-0 (66.7%)
Clay Holmes F56-11-1 (35.3%)4-3-1 (57.1%)2-4-0 (33.3%)0-0-0 (-)0-4-0 (0%)
Clay Holmes9-10-0 (47.4%)6-3-0 (66.7%)3-3-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)0-4-0 (0%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Reds vs. RHP F532-25-9 (56.1%)9-12-3 (42.9%)5-1-2 (83.3%)8-2-2 (80%)10-10-2 (50%)
Reds vs. RHP37-29 (56.1%)12-12 (50%)6-2 (75%)8-4 (66.7%)11-11 (50%)
Mets vs. RHP F538-27-7 (58.5%)19-9-2 (67.9%)9-11-3 (45%)3-1-1 (75%)7-5-1 (58.3%)
Mets vs. RHP42-30 (58.3%)22-8 (73.3%)12-11 (52.2%)2-3 (40%)6-7 (46.2%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Reds vs. RHP F528-32-2 (46.7%)9-11-2 (45%)3-5-0 (37.5%)6-5-0 (54.5%)10-11-0 (47.6%)
Reds vs. RHP26-38-2 (40.6%)7-16-1 (30.4%)1-7-0 (12.5%)5-6-1 (45.5%)13-9-0 (59.1%)
Mets vs. RHP F526-42-1 (38.2%)12-17-0 (41.4%)11-11-0 (50%)1-3-1 (25%)1-11-0 (8.3%)
Mets vs. RHP33-38-1 (46.5%)15-14-1 (51.7%)12-11-0 (52.2%)2-3-0 (40%)3-10-0 (23.1%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Nick Martinez6-11 (35.3%)3-2 (60%)0-2 (0%)1-3 (25%)2-4 (33.3%)
Reds50-47 (51.5%)12-18 (40%)5-8 (38.5%)12-7 (63.2%)21-14 (60%)
Clay Holmes10-9 (52.6%)5-4 (55.6%)3-3 (50%)0-0 (-)2-2 (50%)
Mets49-48 (50.5%)18-22 (45%)12-16 (42.9%)6-2 (75%)13-8 (61.9%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Nick Martinez11-7 (61.1%)5-0 (100%)1-1 (50%)2-2 (50%)2-4 (33.3%)
Reds50-48 (51%)18-12 (60%)8-5 (61.5%)10-9 (52.6%)13-22 (37.1%)
Clay Holmes6-13 (31.6%)4-5 (44.4%)2-4 (33.3%)0-0 (-)0-4 (0%)
Mets39-59 (39.8%)18-22 (45%)11-17 (39.3%)2-6 (25%)7-14 (33.3%)


Batting Matchup
RedsMets
98TG98
4.6R/G4.4
107HR125
0.246AVG0.243
72SB75
23CS10
RedsMets
0.154ISO0.171
0.298BABIP0.28
0.318OBP0.322
0.4SLG0.414
0.315wOBA0.321
97wRC+110
RedsMets
8.8BB%9.1
23.2K%21
0.38BB/K0.43
7.2Barrel%10.4
37.9HardHit%45.7
9.7WAR16

Pitching Matchup
Nick MartinezClay Holmes
21G19
19GS19
111IP103.1
5.3IP/G5.4
7W8
9L4
65.9LOB%79.6
Nick MartinezClay Holmes
6.16K/97.23
2.03BB/93.57
11.2K/BB%9.7
37.4GB%55.2
42.9FB%28.1
1.14HR/90.96
9.5HR/FB%13.1
Nick MartinezClay Holmes
0.283BABIP0.268
4.78ERA3.31
4.08xERA4.2
4.14FIP4.23
4.48xFIP4.05
1.21WHIP1.26
4.5SIERA4.27
1.6WAR1

Bullpen Matchup
RedsMets
3.37BPU/G3.17
3.5IP/G3.8
17W20
16L19
23SV28
11BS17
71.1LOB%71.8
RedsMets
8.18K/98.93
3.94BB/93.69
11K/BB%13.6
41.1GB%41.3
39.9FB%37.7
1.17HR/90.93
11.5HR/FB%9.8
RedsMets
0.255BABIP0.295
3.94ERA3.95
4.39FIP3.82
4.39xFIP4.05
1.27WHIP1.32
4.08SIERA3.75
1.5WAR2.9