Royals @ Marlins [ Marlins -100 / 8.5 ]

Royals | 46-51 (47.4%) Michael Wacha (R) | 4-9 | WHIP: 1.27 | ERA: 3.74
Marlins | 45-51 (46.9%) Cal Quantrill (R) | 3-8 | WHIP: 1.44 | ERA: 5.62

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Royals
Starting Pitcher:
2/4
Bullpen:
1/3
Team Batting:
0/3
Matchup:-4
Est. fair odds: +163 to +187
Implied win prob: 34.84% to 38.02%
Marlins
Starting Pitcher:
2/4
Bullpen:
2/3
Team Batting:
3/3
Matchup:4
Est. fair odds: -163 to -187
Implied win prob: 61.98% to 65.16%
Royals Situational Notes
Game off extra innings
Game off giving up a walk-off win

Marlins Situational Notes
Game off a walk-off win
Game off extra innings

Royals Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
7/20MIA [ 0 ]Janson Junk (R)KCR -
MIA -		-KCR [ 0 ]Kris Bubic (L)
7/19MIA [ 0 ]Cal Quantrill (R)KCR -118
MIA -100		8.5KCR [ 0 ]Michael Wacha (R)
7/18MIA [ 8 ]Sandy Alcantara (R)KCR -120
MIA -102		8KCR [ 7 ]Seth Lugo (R)
7/13KCR [ 3 ]Noah Cameron (L)KCR -
NYM -106		-NYM [ 2 ]Clay Holmes (R)
7/12KCR [ 1 ]Angel Zerpa (L)KCR +112
NYM -132		9NYM [ 3 ]Frankie Montas (R)
7/11KCR [ 3 ]Michael Wacha (R)KCR +114
NYM -134		9.5NYM [ 8 ]Kodai Senga (R)
7/9KCR [ 4 ]Kris Bubic (L)KCR -196
PIT +164		8.5PIT [ 3 ]Bailey Falter (L)
7/8KCR [ 4 ]Seth Lugo (R)KCR -136
PIT +118		8PIT [ 3 ]Mitch Keller (R)
7/7KCR [ 9 ]Noah Cameron (L)KCR -148
PIT +128		9PIT [ 3 ]Andrew Heaney (L)
7/6ARI [ 0 ]Anthony DeSclafani (R)KCR +132
ARI -156		10KCR [ 4 ]Michael Lorenzen (R)
Marlins Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
7/20MIA [ 0 ]Janson Junk (R)MIA -
KCR -		-KCR [ 0 ]Kris Bubic (L)
7/19MIA [ 0 ]Cal Quantrill (R)MIA -100
KCR -118		8.5KCR [ 0 ]Michael Wacha (R)
7/18MIA [ 8 ]Sandy Alcantara (R)MIA +102
KCR -116		8KCR [ 7 ]Seth Lugo (R)
7/13BAL [ 1 ]Brandon Young (R)MIA -
BAL -142		-MIA [ 11 ]Eury Perez (R)
7/12BAL [ 0 ]Trevor Rogers (L)MIA -
BAL -166		-MIA [ 6 ]Janson Junk (R)
7/11BAL [ 5 ]Dean Kremer (R)MIA +112
BAL -138		9MIA [ 2 ]Edward Cabrera (R)
7/10CIN [ 6 ]Nick Lodolo (L)MIA -
CIN -166		-MIA [ 0 ]Cal Quantrill (R)
7/9CIN [ 7 ]Andrew Abbott (L)MIA +118
CIN -142		8.5MIA [ 2 ]Sandy Alcantara (R)
7/8CIN [ 2 ]Nick Martinez (R)MIA +102
CIN -122		9MIA [ 12 ]Eury Perez (R)
7/7CIN [ 1 ]Brady Singer (R)MIA +116
CIN -136		9.5MIA [ 5 ]Janson Junk (R)

Michael Wacha Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
7/11KCR [ 3 ]NYM [ 8 ]1149.55532011Kodai Senga (R)
7/5ARI [ 7 ]KCR [ 1 ]11294444044Ryne Nelson (R)
6/30SEA [ 6 ]KCR [ 2 ]13875128255George Kirby (R)
6/25KCR [ 0 ]TBR [ 3 ]11296919033Drew Rasmussen (R)
6/19TEX [ 1 ]KCR [ 4 ]10886522011Shawn Armstrong (R)
5.24.82.450.42.82.8
Cal Quantrill Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
7/10CIN [ 6 ]MIA [ 0 ]005517156Nick Lodolo (L)
7/5MIA [ 4 ]MIL [ 2 ]1188.53.67616022Chad Patrick (R)
6/29ARI [ 4 ]MIA [ 6 ]1608.55513122Eduardo Rodriguez (L)
6/24SFG [ 2 ]MIA [ 4 ]15484.67324122Justin Verlander (R)
6/17MIA [ 8 ]PHI [ 3 ]1668.54204133Jesus Luzardo (L)
4.474.214.80.82.83
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Michael Wacha F56-8-5 (42.9%)1-3-1 (25%)0-1-0 (0%)1-2-2 (33.3%)4-2-2 (66.7%)
Michael Wacha8-11 (42.1%)2-3 (40%)0-1 (0%)3-2 (60%)3-5 (37.5%)
Cal Quantrill F56-10-2 (37.5%)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)2-3-2 (40%)4-6-0 (40%)
Cal Quantrill10-8 (55.6%)0-1 (0%)0-0 (-)5-2 (71.4%)5-5 (50%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Michael Wacha F53-14-1 (17.6%)0-5-0 (0%)0-0-1 (-)0-5-0 (0%)3-4-0 (42.9%)
Michael Wacha7-11-1 (38.9%)3-2-0 (60%)0-1-0 (0%)1-4-0 (20%)3-4-1 (42.9%)
Cal Quantrill F57-9-0 (43.8%)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)2-4-0 (33.3%)5-4-0 (55.6%)
Cal Quantrill7-11-0 (38.9%)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)3-4-0 (42.9%)4-6-0 (40%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Royals vs. RHP F529-35-16 (45.3%)8-9-7 (47.1%)1-3-2 (25%)4-10-2 (28.6%)16-13-5 (55.2%)
Royals vs. RHP37-43 (46.3%)13-11 (54.2%)2-4 (33.3%)5-11 (31.3%)17-17 (50%)
Marlins vs. RHP F526-32-13 (44.8%)1-2-2 (33.3%)0-1-1 (0%)11-12-5 (47.8%)14-16-5 (46.7%)
Marlins vs. RHP33-38 (46.5%)2-3 (40%)0-2 (0%)13-15 (46.4%)17-18 (48.6%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Royals vs. RHP F524-49-4 (32.9%)5-17-1 (22.7%)3-2-1 (60%)6-10-0 (37.5%)10-20-2 (33.3%)
Royals vs. RHP32-48-0 (40%)9-15-0 (37.5%)4-2-0 (66.7%)6-10-0 (37.5%)13-21-0 (38.2%)
Marlins vs. RHP F534-29-5 (54%)3-2-0 (60%)0-2-0 (0%)10-13-3 (43.5%)21-11-2 (65.6%)
Marlins vs. RHP33-38-0 (46.5%)3-2-0 (60%)1-1-0 (50%)9-19-0 (32.1%)20-15-0 (57.1%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Michael Wacha7-12 (36.8%)0-5 (0%)0-1 (0%)3-2 (60%)4-4 (50%)
Royals49-49 (50%)7-23 (23.3%)3-4 (42.9%)10-10 (50%)29-12 (70.7%)
Cal Quantrill11-7 (61.1%)0-1 (0%)0-0 (-)5-2 (71.4%)6-4 (60%)
Marlins55-39 (58.5%)1-6 (14.3%)0-2 (0%)25-16 (61%)29-15 (65.9%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Michael Wacha4-15 (21.1%)2-3 (40%)0-1 (0%)1-4 (20%)1-7 (12.5%)
Royals36-62 (36.7%)8-22 (26.7%)4-3 (57.1%)6-14 (30%)18-23 (43.9%)
Cal Quantrill7-11 (38.9%)1-0 (100%)0-0 (-)3-4 (42.9%)3-7 (30%)
Marlins48-48 (50%)3-4 (42.9%)1-1 (50%)21-20 (51.2%)21-23 (47.7%)


Batting Matchup
RoyalsMarlins
98TG96
3.4R/G4.3
75HR90
0.245AVG0.254
72SB75
33CS28
RoyalsMarlins
0.131ISO0.14
0.285BABIP0.303
0.3OBP0.315
0.376SLG0.394
0.296wOBA0.31
84wRC+97
RoyalsMarlins
6.4BB%7.8
18.8K%21.1
0.34BB/K0.37
7.4Barrel%8.1
39.8HardHit%40.5
4WAR9.4

Pitching Matchup
Michael WachaCal Quantrill
19G18
19GS18
106IP81.2
5.6IP/G4.5
4W3
9L8
76.7LOB%65.6
Michael WachaCal Quantrill
7.13K/97.38
2.8BB/92.64
11.3K/BB%12.2
38.5GB%34.4
42.5FB%41
0.93HR/91.32
8HR/FB%11.4
Michael WachaCal Quantrill
0.285BABIP0.335
3.74ERA5.62
4.03xERA5.26
3.87FIP4.38
4.44xFIP4.39
1.27WHIP1.44
4.44SIERA4.37
1.8WAR0.8

Bullpen Matchup
RoyalsMarlins
3.26BPU/G3.2
3.3IP/G4
20W25
16L15
28SV22
13BS14
74.1LOB%72.2
RoyalsMarlins
7.92K/98.01
3.23BB/93.38
12.4K/BB%12
46GB%43.2
36.7FB%36.7
1.02HR/91.03
10.7HR/FB%10.6
RoyalsMarlins
0.278BABIP0.291
3.7ERA4.05
4FIP4.07
4.11xFIP4.19
1.25WHIP1.32
3.84SIERA3.91
1.8WAR1.2