Cardinals @ Diamondbacks [ Diamondbacks +106 / 8.5 ]

Cardinals | 51-46 (52.6%) Sonny Gray (R) | 9-3 | WHIP: 1.08 | ERA: 3.50
Diamondbacks | 48-49 (49.5%) Ryne Nelson (R) | 5-2 | WHIP: 1.07 | ERA: 3.68

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Cardinals
Starting Pitcher:
3/4
Bullpen:
3/3
Team Batting:
1/3
Matchup:5
Est. fair odds: -188 to -214
Implied win prob: 65.28% to 68.15%
Diamondbacks
Starting Pitcher:
1/4
Bullpen:
0/3
Team Batting:
1/3
Matchup:-5
Est. fair odds: +188 to +214
Implied win prob: 31.85% to 34.72%
Cardinals Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Diamondbacks Situational Notes

Cardinals Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
7/20ARI [ 0 ]Merrill Kelly (R)STL -
ARI -		-STL [ 0 ]Miles Mikolas (R)
7/19ARI [ 0 ]Ryne Nelson (R)STL -124
ARI +106		8.5STL [ 0 ]Sonny Gray (R)
7/18ARI [ 7 ]Brandon Pfaadt (R)STL +110
ARI -110		8.5STL [ 3 ]Andre Pallante (R)
7/13STL [ 5 ]Sonny Gray (R)STL -
ATL +136		-ATL [ 4 ]Davis Daniel (R)
7/12STL [ 6 ]Erick Fedde (R)STL -102
ATL -116		9ATL [ 7 ]Aaron Bummer (R)
7/11STL [ 5 ]Matthew Liberatore (L)STL -118
ATL -100		8.5ATL [ 6 ]Grant Holmes (R)
7/10STL [ 8 ]Miles Mikolas (R)STL -142
WSN +120		9WSN [ 1 ]Michael Soroka (R)
7/9STL [ 2 ]Andre Pallante (R)STL -142
WSN +120		7.5WSN [ 8 ]MacKenzie Gore (L)
7/8STL [ 4 ]Sonny Gray (R)STL -210
WSN +194		8.5WSN [ 2 ]Jake Irvin (R)
7/6CHC [ 11 ]Matthew Boyd (L)STL +180
CHC -215		7STL [ 0 ]Erick Fedde (R)
Diamondbacks Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
7/20ARI [ 0 ]Merrill Kelly (R)ARI -
STL -		-STL [ 0 ]Miles Mikolas (R)
7/19ARI [ 0 ]Ryne Nelson (R)ARI +106
STL -124		8.5STL [ 0 ]Sonny Gray (R)
7/18ARI [ 7 ]Brandon Pfaadt (R)ARI -130
STL -106		8.5STL [ 3 ]Andre Pallante (R)
7/13LAA [ 1 ]Jose Soriano (R)ARI -
LAA -126		-ARI [ 5 ]Merrill Kelly (R)
7/12LAA [ 10 ]Yusei Kikuchi (L)ARI +106
LAA -124		8.5ARI [ 5 ]Zac Gallen (R)
7/11LAA [ 6 ]Tyler Anderson (L)ARI -112
LAA -104		9ARI [ 5 ]Ryne Nelson (R)
7/10SDP [ 4 ]Randy Vasquez (R)ARI -124
SDP +106		8.5ARI [ 3 ]Eduardo Rodriguez (L)
7/9SDP [ 2 ]Dylan Cease (R)ARI +134
SDP -158		8ARI [ 8 ]Brandon Pfaadt (R)
7/8SDP [ 1 ]Nick Pivetta (R)ARI +108
SDP -142		7.5ARI [ 0 ]Merrill Kelly (R)
7/7SDP [ 3 ]Yu Darvish (R)ARI +104
SDP -124		8ARI [ 6 ]Zac Gallen (R)

Sonny Gray Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
7/13STL [ 5 ]ATL [ 4 ]000000000Davis Daniel (R)
7/8STL [ 4 ]WSN [ 2 ]-2108.50000000Jake Irvin (R)
7/2PIT [ 5 ]STL [ 0 ]-1227.56.33615044Mitch Keller (R)
6/27CLE [ 0 ]STL [ 5 ]-1328.591101000Luis Ortiz (R)
6/21STL [ 6 ]CIN [ 5 ]-20095525011Brent Suter (L)
4.074.40.62.2011
Ryne Nelson Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
7/11LAA [ 6 ]ARI [ 5 ]-11294147244Tyler Anderson (L)
7/5ARI [ 7 ]KCR [ 1 ]-13297504011Michael Wacha (R)
6/30ARI [ 4 ]SFG [ 2 ]1268.56.67705022Logan Webb (R)
6/24CHW [ 1 ]ARI [ 4 ]-1188.55731111Jordan Leasure (R)
6/19TOR [ 5 ]ARI [ 9 ]1208.55.67421111Kevin Gausman (R)
5.674.81.83.60.81.81.8
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Sonny Gray F511-4-3 (73.3%)6-0-3 (100%)2-2-0 (50%)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-1-0 (50%)
Sonny Gray14-4 (77.8%)9-0 (100%)2-2 (50%)2-1 (66.7%)1-1 (50%)
Ryne Nelson F55-4-1 (55.6%)3-1-0 (75%)0-1-1 (0%)1-0-0 (100%)1-1-0 (50%)
Ryne Nelson6-4 (60%)3-1 (75%)1-1 (50%)1-0 (100%)1-1 (50%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Sonny Gray F59-8-1 (52.9%)4-4-1 (50%)1-3-0 (25%)3-0-0 (100%)1-1-0 (50%)
Sonny Gray10-8-0 (55.6%)5-4-0 (55.6%)0-4-0 (0%)3-0-0 (100%)2-0-0 (100%)
Ryne Nelson F54-5-1 (44.4%)1-2-1 (33.3%)1-1-0 (50%)0-1-0 (0%)1-1-0 (50%)
Ryne Nelson3-7-0 (30%)0-4-0 (0%)1-1-0 (50%)0-1-0 (0%)1-1-0 (50%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Cardinals vs. RHP F522-26-15 (45.8%)6-6-3 (50%)4-7-2 (36.4%)7-2-6 (77.8%)4-11-4 (26.7%)
Cardinals vs. RHP34-29 (54%)10-5 (66.7%)6-7 (46.2%)12-3 (80%)5-14 (26.3%)
Diamondbacks vs. RHP F541-23-9 (64.1%)20-10-3 (66.7%)8-7-2 (53.3%)4-1-1 (80%)9-5-3 (64.3%)
Diamondbacks vs. RHP39-34 (53.4%)16-17 (48.5%)10-7 (58.8%)4-2 (66.7%)9-8 (52.9%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Cardinals vs. RHP F530-29-1 (50.8%)8-5-1 (61.5%)6-6-0 (50%)8-7-0 (53.3%)8-10-0 (44.4%)
Cardinals vs. RHP32-29-2 (52.5%)9-5-1 (64.3%)5-7-1 (41.7%)8-7-0 (53.3%)10-9-0 (52.6%)
Diamondbacks vs. RHP F540-30-2 (57.1%)18-14-1 (56.3%)9-8-0 (52.9%)3-3-0 (50%)10-5-1 (66.7%)
Diamondbacks vs. RHP38-33-2 (53.5%)19-12-2 (61.3%)9-8-0 (52.9%)1-5-0 (16.7%)9-8-0 (52.9%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Sonny Gray10-8 (55.6%)5-4 (55.6%)2-2 (50%)2-1 (66.7%)1-1 (50%)
Cardinals50-46 (52.1%)8-18 (30.8%)8-9 (47.1%)15-7 (68.2%)19-12 (61.3%)
Ryne Nelson7-2 (77.8%)3-1 (75%)1-1 (50%)1-0 (100%)2-0 (100%)
Diamondbacks48-48 (50%)17-24 (41.5%)9-14 (39.1%)4-4 (50%)18-6 (75%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Sonny Gray7-11 (38.9%)4-5 (44.4%)0-4 (0%)2-1 (66.7%)1-1 (50%)
Cardinals52-45 (53.6%)17-9 (65.4%)8-9 (47.1%)10-12 (45.5%)16-15 (51.6%)
Ryne Nelson5-5 (50%)2-2 (50%)2-0 (100%)0-1 (0%)0-2 (0%)
Diamondbacks53-45 (54.1%)22-19 (53.7%)12-11 (52.2%)4-4 (50%)13-11 (54.2%)


Batting Matchup
CardinalsDiamondbacks
98TG98
4.6R/G5.1
98HR141
0.252AVG0.252
55SB67
15CS21
CardinalsDiamondbacks
0.141ISO0.193
0.297BABIP0.284
0.322OBP0.328
0.393SLG0.444
0.314wOBA0.335
103wRC+114
CardinalsDiamondbacks
8.3BB%9.3
20.5K%20.5
0.4BB/K0.46
8Barrel%9.2
40.4HardHit%41.7
14.4WAR19

Pitching Matchup
Sonny GrayRyne Nelson
19G20
19GS10
108IP78.1
5.7IP/G3.9
9W5
3L2
71.7LOB%71.2
Sonny GrayRyne Nelson
9.83K/97.47
1.58BB/92.87
22.9K/BB%12.7
41.4GB%41.9
34.1FB%36.5
0.83HR/90.92
10.1HR/FB%9.9
Sonny GrayRyne Nelson
0.312BABIP0.237
3.5ERA3.68
3.55xERA4.2
2.71FIP3.82
2.87xFIP4.04
1.08WHIP1.07
3.05SIERA4.08
3WAR0.7

Bullpen Matchup
CardinalsDiamondbacks
2.99BPU/G3.04
3.5IP/G3.4
22W13
15L18
24SV27
14BS17
69.7LOB%68.7
CardinalsDiamondbacks
7.99K/98.56
3.29BB/93.81
12.3K/BB%12
47.3GB%44.4
33.2FB%37.2
0.77HR/91.22
8.9HR/FB%12.4
CardinalsDiamondbacks
0.288BABIP0.312
3.8ERA5
3.66FIP4.39
3.98xFIP4.26
1.27WHIP1.44
3.8SIERA3.91
2.6WAR-0.5