Red Sox @ Cubs [ Cubs -148 / 9 ]

Red Sox | 53-46 (53.5%) Brayan Bello (R) | 6-3 | WHIP: 1.28 | ERA: 3.14
Cubs | 54-36 (60%) Shota Imanaga (L) | 6-3 | WHIP: 0.93 | ERA: 2.65

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Red Sox
Starting Pitcher:
2/4
Bullpen:
1/3
Team Batting:
2/3
Matchup:1
Est. fair odds: -111 to -124
Implied win prob: 52.61% to 55.36%
Cubs
Starting Pitcher:
1/4
Bullpen:
2/3
Team Batting:
1/3
Matchup:-1
Est. fair odds: +111 to +124
Implied win prob: 44.64% to 47.39%
Red Sox Situational Notes

Cubs Situational Notes

Red Sox Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
7/20CHC [ 0 ]TBD (-)BOS -
CHC -		-BOS [ 0 ]Garrett Crochet (L)
7/19CHC [ 0 ]Shota Imanaga (L)BOS +126
CHC -148		9BOS [ 0 ]Brayan Bello (R)
7/18CHC [ 4 ]Colin Rea (R)BOS +116
CHC -136		7.5BOS [ 1 ]Lucas Giolito (R)
7/13BOS [ 4 ]Brayan Bello (R)BOS -
TBR +102		-TBR [ 1 ]Ryan Pepiot (R)
7/12BOS [ 1 ]Garrett Crochet (L)BOS -
TBR +146		-TBR [ 0 ]Shane Baz (R)
7/11BOS [ 5 ]Hunter Dobbins (R)BOS -110
TBR -104		9TBR [ 4 ]Drew Rasmussen (R)
7/10BOS [ 4 ]Walker Buehler (R)BOS -
TBR -102		-TBR [ 3 ]Taj Bradley (R)
7/9BOS [ 10 ]Lucas Giolito (R)BOS -300
COL +270		9COL [ 2 ]Antonio Senzatela (R)
7/8BOS [ 10 ]Brayan Bello (R)BOS -245
COL +235		9COL [ 2 ]Kyle Freeland (L)
7/7BOS [ 9 ]Richard Fitts (R)BOS -225
COL +205		9.5COL [ 3 ]Austin Gomber (L)
Cubs Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
7/20CHC [ 0 ]TBD (-)CHC -
BOS -		-BOS [ 0 ]Garrett Crochet (L)
7/19CHC [ 0 ]Shota Imanaga (L)CHC -148
BOS +126		9BOS [ 0 ]Brayan Bello (R)
7/18CHC [ 4 ]Colin Rea (R)CHC -136
BOS +116		7.5BOS [ 1 ]Lucas Giolito (R)
7/13NYY [ 1 ]Will Warren (R)CHC +110
NYY -130		9CHC [ 4 ]Shota Imanaga (L)
7/12NYY [ 2 ]Max Fried (L)CHC -
NYY -156		-CHC [ 5 ]Matthew Boyd (L)
7/11NYY [ 11 ]Carlos Rodon (L)CHC +158
NYY -172		9CHC [ 0 ]Chris Flexen (R)
7/10MIN [ 1 ]Chris Paddack (R)CHC -116
MIN -102		9.5CHC [ 8 ]Colin Rea (R)
7/9MIN [ 4 ]David Festa (R)CHC -104
MIN -112		9.5CHC [ 2 ]Cade Horton (R)
7/8MIN [ 8 ]Simeon Woods Richardson (R)CHC -134
MIN +116		9CHC [ 1 ]Shota Imanaga (L)
7/6CHC [ 11 ]Matthew Boyd (L)CHC -215
STL +180		7STL [ 0 ]Erick Fedde (R)

Brayan Bello Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
7/13BOS [ 4 ]TBR [ 1 ]000000000Ryan Pepiot (R)
7/8BOS [ 10 ]COL [ 2 ]-24590000000Kyle Freeland (L)
6/27BOS [ 0 ]TOR [ 9 ]-1268.56138033Jose Berrios (R)
6/21SFG [ 3 ]BOS [ 2 ]1047.56614213Landen Roupp (R)
6/15BOS [ 2 ]NYY [ 0 ]1628.57833000Max Fried (L)
3.831.430.40.81.2
Shota Imanaga Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
7/13NYY [ 1 ]CHC [ 4 ]11090000000Will Warren (R)
7/8MIN [ 8 ]CHC [ 1 ]-13490000000Simeon Woods Richardson (R)
7/2CHC [ 5 ]CLE [ 4 ]-16285.33404333Tanner Bibee (R)
6/26STL [ 0 ]CHC [ 3 ]-13495311000Andre Pallante (R)
5/4MIL [ 4 ]CHC [ 0 ]-1107.55.67414022Freddy Peralta (R)
3.22.20.41.80.611
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Brayan Bello F56-6-3 (50%)2-3-3 (40%)1-0-0 (100%)1-1-0 (50%)2-1-0 (66.7%)
Brayan Bello8-7 (53.3%)6-2 (75%)1-0 (100%)1-1 (50%)0-3 (0%)
Shota Imanaga F56-4-2 (60%)2-1-0 (66.7%)2-2-1 (50%)1-0-0 (100%)1-0-1 (100%)
Shota Imanaga8-4 (66.7%)2-1 (66.7%)3-2 (60%)1-0 (100%)2-0 (100%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Brayan Bello F55-10-0 (33.3%)1-7-0 (12.5%)1-0-0 (100%)1-1-0 (50%)2-1-0 (66.7%)
Brayan Bello9-6-0 (60%)4-4-0 (50%)1-0-0 (100%)1-1-0 (50%)2-1-0 (66.7%)
Shota Imanaga F55-7-0 (41.7%)3-0-0 (100%)0-5-0 (0%)1-0-0 (100%)0-2-0 (0%)
Shota Imanaga4-7-1 (36.4%)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-3-1 (25%)1-0-0 (100%)0-2-0 (0%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Red Sox vs. LHP F513-7-6 (65%)3-3-2 (50%)5-0-1 (100%)2-0-0 (100%)2-3-2 (40%)
Red Sox vs. LHP13-13 (50%)4-4 (50%)3-3 (50%)2-0 (100%)2-5 (28.6%)
Cubs vs. RHP F538-19-12 (66.7%)21-3-7 (87.5%)8-6-2 (57.1%)2-1-0 (66.7%)7-6-3 (53.8%)
Cubs vs. RHP45-24 (65.2%)24-7 (77.4%)11-5 (68.8%)2-1 (66.7%)8-8 (50%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Red Sox vs. LHP F515-9-1 (62.5%)2-5-1 (28.6%)4-2-0 (66.7%)0-2-0 (0%)7-0-0 (100%)
Red Sox vs. LHP16-10-0 (61.5%)4-4-0 (50%)4-2-0 (66.7%)0-2-0 (0%)6-1-0 (85.7%)
Cubs vs. RHP F538-23-5 (62.3%)17-7-4 (70.8%)10-6-0 (62.5%)2-1-0 (66.7%)7-8-1 (46.7%)
Cubs vs. RHP35-29-5 (54.7%)17-12-2 (58.6%)7-8-1 (46.7%)3-0-0 (100%)7-7-2 (50%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Brayan Bello11-3 (78.6%)6-2 (75%)1-0 (100%)1-1 (50%)3-0 (100%)
Red Sox48-46 (51.1%)17-24 (41.5%)11-11 (50%)5-2 (71.4%)15-9 (62.5%)
Shota Imanaga6-6 (50%)1-2 (33.3%)2-3 (40%)1-0 (100%)2-0 (100%)
Cubs47-47 (50%)20-21 (48.8%)14-10 (58.3%)2-2 (50%)11-12 (47.8%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Brayan Bello7-8 (46.7%)3-5 (37.5%)0-1 (0%)2-0 (100%)2-1 (66.7%)
Red Sox54-44 (55.1%)20-21 (48.8%)10-12 (45.5%)6-1 (85.7%)17-7 (70.8%)
Shota Imanaga5-7 (41.7%)2-1 (66.7%)1-4 (20%)1-0 (100%)1-1 (50%)
Cubs50-47 (51.5%)21-20 (51.2%)15-9 (62.5%)2-2 (50%)10-13 (43.5%)


Batting Matchup
Red SoxCubs
99TG97
5R/G5.3
122HR143
0.255AVG0.255
85SB109
22CS19
Red SoxCubs
0.176ISO0.19
0.309BABIP0.286
0.326OBP0.325
0.431SLG0.445
0.329wOBA0.333
106wRC+116
Red SoxCubs
8.5BB%8.9
23.3K%20
0.36BB/K0.45
10.1Barrel%10.3
45.9HardHit%40
16.4WAR21.9

Pitching Matchup
Brayan BelloShota Imanaga
16G12
15GS12
91.2IP68
5.7IP/G5.7
6W6
3L3
78.3LOB%88.5
Brayan BelloShota Imanaga
6.87K/96.35
3.34BB/92.12
9.3K/BB%12.1
51.8GB%27.8
28.8FB%56.1
0.88HR/91.46
11.4HR/FB%9.9
Brayan BelloShota Imanaga
0.277BABIP0.191
3.14ERA2.65
4.25xERA3.81
4.21FIP4.52
4.21xFIP4.85
1.28WHIP0.93
4.35SIERA4.78
0.9WAR0.6

Bullpen Matchup
Red SoxCubs
3.24BPU/G3.3
3.6IP/G3.6
21W19
21L14
26SV24
18BS10
68.8LOB%74.7
Red SoxCubs
8.48K/97.51
3.77BB/93.21
12.3K/BB%11.4
44.7GB%43.3
35.7FB%37.6
0.62HR/90.85
6.9HR/FB%8.6
Red SoxCubs
0.28BABIP0.283
3.42ERA3.5
3.51FIP3.85
4.1xFIP4.25
1.26WHIP1.26
3.87SIERA3.99
4.5WAR2.3