{"id":4355,"date":"2025-06-22T15:38:59","date_gmt":"2025-06-22T15:38:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/?p=4355"},"modified":"2025-06-22T15:39:01","modified_gmt":"2025-06-22T15:39:01","slug":"expectations-can-aces-get-back-on-track-sunday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/2025\/06\/22\/expectations-can-aces-get-back-on-track-sunday\/","title":{"rendered":"Expectations: Can Aces Get Back on Track Sunday?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

CHI v ATL:
<\/u><\/strong>Chicago will be playing the 2nd leg of their b2b after getting absolutely smoked by PHX. This game followed the trend for CHI, where their defense was successful in limiting OPP PITP (4th in June, 30 for PHX), yet once again get pounded by perimeter action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The best performances against Chicago in June have all come from these high volume shooters:
– Mabrey 22 Pts (7\/17, 12 3PA)
– Plum 28 Pts (9\/18, 10 3PA)
– Arike 26 PPG (9.5\/20.5, 8.5 3PA)
– Clark 20 Pts (6\/13, 8 3PA)
– Rhyne Howard<\/strong> 36 Pts (25 FGA, 19 3PA<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even more remarkable is that 19 players<\/strong> in Chicago’s six June games have been able to notch 15+ points! None of these 19 players did this without at least notching one 3PM.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The choice will always be which perimeter shooter to choose amongst Howard and Gray, but they can work as an absolute tandem unit. Gray had 4 of her 5 assists to Rhyne Howard 3s in the prior meeting, with 9 overall potentials, while Canada had 13 potentials to lead the team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After The Mercury threw up 25 assists, CHI now allows the 4th most assists this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The big CHI frontcourt has been successful at limiting opposing big rebounds, put other lengthy SG\/SFs have gotten solid numbers from having to also crash. In this matchup, Rhyne\/Gray combined for 15 amongst themselves. With Canada on Atkins, it allows these two to roam off Nurse\/Banham\/Allen etc. Other block players have succeeded:
– Mabrey 5 Reb
– Clark 10 Reb
– Citron 9 Reb
– Paige 5 Reb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The question that must be asked is whether Chicago can keep this game competitive. The Sky now have the worst ORTG in June, crossing 70 points just once this entire month, which really came off a practice round 4th quarter just last game as they entered the final stretch down 34.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However there is one shining light, and that is shown by ATL allowing the 3rd most PITP this month. The reasoning for this hole has centralized from Griner<\/strong>, whose slow feet has left ATL allowing Top 5 Pts to both PnR Handlers and Roll Men.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Atkins<\/strong> notched 5 assists off a season high 12 potentials last meeting, with 3 of those coming through direct PnR action (all to Reese\/Williams). All CHI starters at least got the ability to rest the 4th Q yesterday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IND v LVA:
<\/u><\/strong>The Aces have dropped 3 straight games now before facing Indiana, and Becky Hammon<\/strong> really does not like losing:
\u201c[Our 2nd half] is more than an Achilles heel, it\u2019s a thing. Maybe I\u2019ll just start a different five in the third quarter\u2014we\u2019ll see. Anything\u2019s on the table at this point because it\u2019s gross… I might change who we start in the third quarter.\u201d
\u201cOur defense was atrocious again in the third quarter, and that was the first five, not that second unit. I actually thought our second unit had a good run there”<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Would have to imagine it’s Loyd<\/strong> that is mainly on the defensive chopping block, who was already a likely candidate to head to the bench as Hammon wanted to increase her scoring output.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Granted, A’ja Wilson<\/strong> really doesn’t like losing either. The Fever have been one of the most porous interior defenses in June, allowing the 2nd most PITP at 39 per game. <\/strong>This paint success has actually come directly from bigs:
– Breezy Jones 21 Pts (9\/14)
– Iriafen 20 Pts (9\/11)
– Charles 20 Pts (6\/17)
– Thornton 16 (5\/11)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2024 MVP produced 30+ Pts in a quarter of her games last season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Aces, somehow, have surrendered 25.9 OPP Guard RPG<\/strong> in June. This has made up over 70% of the total rebounds they have surrendered in that span (36.4), which is the 2nd most in the league behind Connecticut. This has been genuine success too:
– Arike 8 Reb \/ DiJonai 8 Reb
– Gabby (F?) 12 Reb
– Sims 4 R \/ Plum 4 R
– Burton 7 R \/ Martin 7 R<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clark<\/strong> averaged dead on to 5.5 RPG vs LVA last season, so unlikely that there is much edge in the line there. However, Clark<\/strong> never surpassed 20 Pts or 2 3PM against Aces last season. Granted, it wasn’t due to the lack of volume in the final two meetings, where she shot 20 times per game – in addition to Mitchell’s 17.5 FGA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Could be in for a game now, as Hammon is correct that The Aces defense has been shaky. They rank 10th in DRTG in June while allowing the 2nd most FGM, specifically being the most from ATB, Midrange and Paint (non-RA). Given Aces don’t often double up top, as lateral speed isn’t a strength with a Gray\/Loyd backcourt, it has left stars getting good volume:
– Arike 17 FGA \/ Paige 19 FGA (best backcourt comparison)
– SDS 16 FGA \/ Gabby 15.5 FGA
– Williams 23 FGA \/ McBride 12 FGA<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DAL v WSH:
<\/u><\/strong>This new Mystics lineup is all about high pressure, which we played into with Rhyne assists last game. With Iriafen and Austin in the lineup, The Mystics have been a relentless unit for high trapping off screens. The two games this has been applied has produced:
– Howard 11 FGA (6 Ast)
– Atkins 9 FGA (7 Ast)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If they can hold Rhyne to 11 FGA, then can expect the same pressure to be applied to Paige Bueckers<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As you could maybe assume, The Mystics defense has now flipped from being a 3PT leak to a complete inside leak, allowing the most Rim FGM in the league in June (16.3 per game). This is 3 more than the next worst team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Koclanes on Li Yueru:
\u201cJust super impressed with her ability to get up and down and to play through mistakes when it\u2019s not perfect, and then just for her to execute defensively… asking her to get up at the point of attack with players like Marina coming off and being able to hedge and be more aggressive and then being able to read other ones and be able to plug and then be able to pound with Tina. Offensively, she\u2019s just a connector, a fantastic screener… the bonus is she throws in a three, which she\u2019s a fantastic shooter, and that was a big three.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Wings still surrendered 36 PITP to CON last game, and remain a B5 Paint D in June. The Mystics frontcourt is a revolving door. Iriafen <\/strong>notched all her 24 minutes in 3Q last game, as she picked up her 5th foul in the opening minute of the 4th then was never put back in the game (in favor of Engstler<\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Austin<\/strong> put up her career high of 28 Points<\/strong> in the 1 point loss being 13\/17<\/strong> from the field. No frontcourt player has gone under 13 points if they shot over 10 times vs DAL this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NYL v SEA:
<\/u><\/strong>The Wings without Jonquel\/Fiebich are not a championship caliber team. Those two currently lead the team in DRTG when they are individually on the court. Jonquel<\/strong> with her hurt ankle is expected to miss 4-6 weeks, while Fiebich<\/strong> is still away at EuroBasket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the L3 Games, the Liberty have plummeted to a 109.2 DRTG, which is only better than Connecticut (per usual) in June. They have surrendered the most 2nd chance Pts and ATB 3PM in this span. 10 Players<\/strong> in this 3 game span covered Gabby Williams’ <\/strong>12.5 Pt line, who is already over this mark in 7\/L10<\/strong> games with 30+ minutes. This booms up to 18.3 PPG<\/strong> (4\/4) against below average defenses. Keep disrespecting the silver medalist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As I have thought so often recently, it’s going to be a rough day for Breanna Stewart<\/strong>. Going into a ton of length from SEA. Likely that Williams takes Sabrina here, so Ogwumike\/Magbegor can focus all their attention on Stewart. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

CON v GSV:
<\/u><\/strong>Do not sleep on Ballhalla. The Valkyries have now won three straight home games vs Aces, Storm and Fever. Their defense on top options in those games was absolutely suffocating:
– Clark 11 Pts (14 FGA)
– Ogwumike 6 Pts (6 FGA) \/ Williams 9 Pts (8 FGA)
– A’ja 17 Pts (13 FGA) \/ Jackie 4 Pts (7 FGA)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Only PHX this season has allowed fewer PITP than GSV, as Natalie Nakase’s team loves to collapse inside. They have surrendered high OPP 3PA volume as a biproduct, yet that is more often shown through a team’s supporting cast. Expect Tina Charles<\/strong> to struggle here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mabrey <\/strong>is questionable here after hyperextending her knee vs DAL the game before. Looked to be in a lot of pain but she came back out for the 2H and ended up finishing the game. Questionable today, will see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the Valks side, anyone can thrive. The most reliable minutes for this team only lands in Thornton<\/strong> and Burton<\/strong> for 30+ a game, while Billings <\/strong>has been pure boom or bust. Despite Thornton being in foul issues last game, the shooting explosion of Chloe Bibby<\/strong> – the Aussie signed 6 days ago – left Billings with sub 20min. Given this was Bibby’s first game with on-floor action, it’s hard to tell how much of her run was hot-hand based.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CON rankings in the month of June:
– 13th<\/strong> in DRTG
– 13th<\/strong> in OPP Rim FGA
– 13th<\/strong> in OPP RPG<\/p>\n\n\n\n

23 Players in CON’s 7 June games have 5+ rebounds.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CHI v ATL:Chicago will be playing the 2nd leg of their b2b after getting absolutely smoked by PHX. This game followed the trend for CHI, where their defense was successful in limiting OPP PITP (4th in June, 30 for PHX), yet once again get pounded by perimeter action. The best performances against Chicago in June […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1182,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4355","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-betting"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4355","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1182"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4355"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4355\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4356,"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4355\/revisions\/4356"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4355"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4355"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4355"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}