{"id":4019,"date":"2025-03-03T21:26:36","date_gmt":"2025-03-03T21:26:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/?p=4019"},"modified":"2025-03-03T21:26:39","modified_gmt":"2025-03-03T21:26:39","slug":"%f0%9f%93%8aactive-systems-for-march-3rd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/2025\/03\/03\/%f0%9f%93%8aactive-systems-for-march-3rd\/","title":{"rendered":"\ud83d\udccaActive Systems for March 3rd"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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\ud83c\udfc0Duke is 10-0 to the OVER<\/strong> after holding their opponent to under 44% shooting from the field in their previous game. These games are clearing the total by an average of +14.9 points per game.
<\/em>\u2753Duke games often become much higher scoring after they play strong defense in the previous game. This trend works because after a solid defensive performance, Duke is more likely to play with confidence, push the pace, and focus more on offense, and sometimes teams they face also bounce back offensively after struggling.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udccaWake Forest is 9-0-1 to the OVER<\/strong> as an underdog when facing teams they made fewer than three 3-pointers against in a prior matchup. These games are finishing over the total by an average of +9.1 points per game.
<\/em>\u2753Wake Forest games tend to fly over the total when they are underdogs and they previously had a poor shooting night (especially from 3). This trend works because teams tend to adjust after a bad shooting game, leading to better offensive execution and a faster pace.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udccaWake Forest is 27-8 to the OVER<\/strong> (77.8%)<\/em> in conference games where the total is at least 5 points higher than their previous game.
\u2753When the total jumps significantly from their last game, it\u2019s usually a sign the market expects faster pace or worse defense, and Wake\u2019s style tends to feed into those higher-scoring games, especially in conference play where teams know each other\u2019s weaknesses.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udd627:00 PM EST<\/p>\n\n\n\n

#\ufe0fDuke +39.08 NetRating (1st)<\/em> \/ Wake Forest +10.58 NetRating (77th)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u23ea\u201dA\u201d Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of WAKE FOREST\/DUKE OVER 145.0
<\/strong>(Total went from 142.5 to 145.0 despite the UNDER receiving 71% of public bets and 66% of the money).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2705Active on Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Duke Blue Devils OVER 144.5<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udc8eBest bet: Wake Forest @ Duke OVER 144.5 <\/strong>(-110)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0The Memphis Grizzlies are 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS <\/strong>vs Eastern conference teams below .500 since November.
\u2753Bad teams often struggle against more talented, well-coached teams like Memphis, and the Grizzlies excel at imposing their pace and talent edge, especially against non-conference teams they don\u2019t see as often, making it hard for those weaker teams to adjust.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udccaThe Memphis Grizzlies are 13-4 ATS<\/strong> this season as favorites with totals above 236.0
\u2753High totals usually mean Memphis is playing fast-paced games against offensive-minded teams, a style they thrive in. Memphis has shown they can win comfortably in shootouts by using their speed, transition game, and athleticism to overwhelm opponents, especially at the guard and wing positions.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udd628:00 PM EST<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udcc8Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS when their spread is between -7.5 & -10.5<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udcc9Hawks are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

#\ufe0f\u20e3Memphis beat Atlanta by 16 points in their previous matchup.
#\ufe0f\u20e3ATL 19th in eFG% \/ MEM 4th in defending eFG%
#\ufe0f\u20e3MEM 9th in eFG% \/ ATL 28th in defending eFG%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfafJa Morant has 7+ assists in 15 straight home games vs Eastern conference teams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfafDesmond Bane has 20+ points in 4 straight home games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2705Active on Memphis Grizzlies ML & -8.5<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udc8eBest bet: Memphis ML & J. Morant 5+ assists + D. Bane 15+ points <\/strong>(-145)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0The Portland Trailblazers are 11-0 ATS<\/strong> since January vs Eastern conference teams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udd627:00 PM EST<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udcc8Portland are 7-2 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udcc9Philadelphia are 1-13 ATS as home favorites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

#\ufe0f\u20e3POR 3rd in OREB% \/ PHI 28th in defending OREB%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0Portland ML<\/strong>: 42% of public \ud83d\udcb2<\/strong>
Philadelphia -2.5 is the most popular side and the line dropped from -3.5 to -2.5<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2705Active on Portland Trailblazers +2.5<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udc8eBest bet: Portland Trailblazers ML <\/strong>(+120)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfd2The Ottawa Senators are 6-0 on the puck line <\/strong>(+1.5)<\/strong><\/em> in their last 6 game on the road after a win at home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udccaThe Senators are also 5-0<\/strong> on the puck line <\/strong>(+1.5)<\/strong><\/em> in their last 5 games as an underdog vs the Washington Capitals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udd626:30 PM EST<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udcc8Ottawa are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games against an opponent in the Metropolitan division.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udcc9Washington are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83e\udd45Linus Ullmark (36)<\/em> \/ Logan Thompson (81)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfafTim Stutzle has a point in 11 straight games. (1+ point @ -175)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u23ea\u201dB\u201d Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Ottawa Senators ML
<\/strong>(Line went from +136 to +132 despite the Washington ML receiving 75% of public bets).
<\/em>\ud83d\udcb2Smart Money detected coming in on Ottawa Senators ML<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2705Active on Ottawa Senators +1.5<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udc8eBest bet: Ottawa Senators +1.5 & Tim Stutzle 1+ points <\/strong>(+110)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfd2The San Jose Sharks are 0-11 SU<\/strong> in their last 11 games as an underdogs coming off a loss on the road. Those games have been lost by an average of -1.8 goals per game.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udccaThe San Jose Sharks are 0-9 SU<\/strong> this season when their line is +280 or more and the opponent team is above .590. Those games have been lost by an average of -2.1 goals per game.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udccaThe Toronto Maple Leafs are 5-1 SU<\/strong> in their last 6 games at home vs the San Jose Sharks. Those games have been won by an average of +3.2 goals per game.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udd627:30 PM EST<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udcc8Toronto are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udcc9San Jose are 0-8 SU in their last 8 games and 0-9 SU in their last 9 games on the road.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83e\udd45Alexandar Georgiev (9)<\/em> \/ Anthony Stolarz (100)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfafMorgan Rielly has a point in 4 straight games vs the Pacific division. (1+ point @ -110)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfafMitch Marner has a goal in 4 straight games vs San Jose. (Anytime goalscorer @ +155)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfafAuston Matthews has a goal in 11 of his last 13 games vs San Jose. (Anytime goalscorer @ -120)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2705Active on Toronto Maple Leafs ML<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udc8eBest bet: Toronto Maple Leafs ML & A. Matthews + M. Marner 1+ point <\/strong>(-130)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfd2The Chicago Blackhawks are 2-11 SU<\/strong> since 2023 coming off a road win. They are also 0-4 SU<\/strong> in the same situation when the opponent team is above .500. Those games are lost by an average of -2.0 goals per game.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udd628:30 PM EST<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83e\udd45Darcy Kuemper (90)<\/em> \/ Spencer Knight (-)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfafPhillip Danault has a point in 4 straight games vs Chicago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2705Active on Los Angeles Kings ML<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udc8eBest bet: Los Angeles Kings -1.5 <\/strong>(+105)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n
\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0Wake Forest @ Duke OVER 144.5 (1u)
\ud83c\udfc0Memphis ML & J. Morant 5+ assists + D. Bane 15+ points (1u)
\ud83c\udfd2Ottawa Senators +1.5 & Tim Stutzle 1+ points (1u)
\ud83c\udfd2Toronto Maple Leafs ML & A. Matthews + M. Marner 1+ point (0.5u)
\ud83c\udfd2Los Angeles Kings -1.5 (0.5u)
\ud83c\udfc0Portland Trailblazers ML (0.5u)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n
\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0 Houston Rockets are 15-0 to the OVER on the road against non-division opponents, after playing their previous game at home. (+15.4 points per game)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0 Dallas Mavericks are 14-0 to the UNDER at home, facing conference opponents who are currently on a winning streak. (-11.7 points per game)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0 Sacramento Kings are 13-0 ATS as a road underdog against conference opponents, who allow fewer than 13.5 made three-pointers per game, when Sacramento outperformed the spread by more than 2.5 points in their previous game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0 Portland Trail Blazers are 11-0 ATS against Eastern Conference opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0 Detroit Pistons are 10-0 ATS after playing a game as a favorite, when their assist-to-turnover ratio was below 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0 Atlanta Hawks are 9-0 to the OVER when the total is greater than 237.5, following a loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0 Charlotte Hornets are 8-0 ATS at home, against teams they failed to cover against in the previous meeting, when Charlotte was a double-digit underdog.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0 Miami Heat are 8-0 to the OVER at home, after covering the spread in their previous game where they recorded at least 12 turnovers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0 Maryland Eastern Shore is 14-0 to the UNDER as a single-digit underdog, after a game where they shot better than 30% from the field and outperformed the spread by fewer than 2 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0 Alcorn State is 10-0 ATS after winning their previous game by double digits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0 Kansas is 10-0 to the UNDER following a home game where they committed fewer than 11 turnovers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0 Morgan State is 9-0 to the OVER when the total is at least 2 points higher than their previous game\u2019s total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0 Stephen F. Austin is 0-8 ATS with a spread under 21.5 points, after failing to cover the spread in a game where the line was between pick\u2019em and 3 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0 Jackson State is 7-0 to the OVER as a double-digit favorite, when the total is higher than 130.5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0 Texas Southern is 0-7 ATS as an underdog against teams that allow less than 45% shooting and average fewer than 13.5 turnovers per game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0 Texas Southern is 8-0 to the UNDER as an underdog of less than 15.5 points, when the total is at least 4 points lower than their previous game\u2019s total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n
\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u2753 RLM are identified at a certain time during the day. While I report these plays later in the day, some lines may have already moved back. The key takeaway is the early sharp movement which focuses on understanding where the sharp money hit, even if the line has since adjusted. These can still be considered, even if the numbers changed.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u23ea\ud83c\udfc0\u201dA\u201d Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of WAKE FOREST\/DUKE OVER 145.0
<\/strong>(Total went from 142.5 to 145.0 despite the UNDER receiving 71% of public bets and 66% of the money).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u23ea\u201dB\u201d Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Ottawa Senators ML
<\/strong>(Line went from +136 to +132 despite the Washington ML receiving 75% of public bets).
<\/em>\ud83d\udcb2Smart Money detected coming in on Ottawa Senators ML<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0Portland Trailblazers +2.5<\/strong>: 42% of public \ud83d\udcb2<\/strong>
Philadelphia -2.5 is the most popular side and the line dropped from -3.5 to -2.5<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc0Sacramento Kings ML<\/strong>: 47% of public \ud83d\udcb2<\/strong>
Dallas ML is the most popular side and the line dropped from -125 to +111<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfd2New York Islanders ML<\/strong>: 27% of public \ud83d\udcb2<\/strong>
NYR ML is the most popular side and the line dropped from -140 to -115<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Thanks for reading today\u2019s insights!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you found value in this post, don\u2019t forget to like and share my page with fellow sports enthusiasts. Let\u2019s continue turning data into dollars, one game at a time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See you tomorrow with more winning systems \ud83c\udfc6<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\ud83c\udfc0Duke is 10-0 to the OVER after holding their opponent to under 44% shooting from the field in their previous game. These games are clearing the total by an average of +14.9 points per game.\u2753Duke games often become much higher scoring after they play strong defense in the previous game. This trend works because after a solid defensive […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":366,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4019","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-betting"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4019","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/366"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4019"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4019\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4020,"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4019\/revisions\/4020"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4019"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4019"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4019"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}