{"id":3316,"date":"2024-11-28T14:09:33","date_gmt":"2024-11-28T14:09:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/?p=3316"},"modified":"2025-01-18T04:20:41","modified_gmt":"2025-01-18T04:20:41","slug":"nfl-week-13-newsletter-part-1-thanksgiving-week-angles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/2024\/11\/28\/nfl-week-13-newsletter-part-1-thanksgiving-week-angles\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 13 Newsletter Part 1: Thanksgiving Week Angles"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Welcome to the Part 1 of NFL Week 13 Newsletter! <\/strong>Each week, we\u2019ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Last week, our picks went 1-2, which brings our season record on released picks to 18-17-2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week, we will do things in two parts. Our first part will have a short breakdown on Thursday and Friday angles, and we’ll do a part two that will look like our traditional one on Saturday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • Lions: 9-2 1H and full game ATS <\/strong>this season<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Lions: lost 7 straight Thanksgiving games outright<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Bears: 4-7 1H ATS<\/strong> this season<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Teams playing on Thursday after their previous game was in overtime have gone 6-25 ATS (3-16 ATS on the road)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    TMB thoughts: <\/strong>The Lions have been a powerhouse ATS this season, boasting an impressive 9-2 record for both 1H and full game. On Thanksgiving, they\u2019re looking to shake off a long-standing curse, having lost seven straight games outright on the holiday. But this season feels different. Detroit is firing on all cylinders, led by Dan Campbell\u2019s aggressive coaching style and a balanced attack that has them sitting atop the NFC North.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Bears come into this matchup with a rookie quarterback, and while they\u2019ve shown flashes of potential, they\u2019ve been inconsistent, particularly early in games (4-7 1H ATS). Adding to their challenges is a brutal trend for teams playing on a short week after an OT game\u2014they are 6-25 ATS (3-16 ATS on the road). This situational spot screams letdown for Chicago, especially against a hungry Lions team eager to make a statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    We expect the Lions to come out with intensity, feeding off the energy of a national audience. Lions 1H -6.5<\/strong> is our favorite play, as they\u2019ve consistently started strong this season. We also lean toward Detroit to cover the full game, given the mismatch in momentum and preparation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n


    New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
      \n
    • Cowboys: 2-11 ATS<\/strong> in L13 Thanksgiving games.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Cowboys: 0-7 ATS<\/strong> in L7 home games<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      TMB thoughts:<\/strong> On paper, the Cowboys have been a classic fade on Thanksgiving. However, this matchup features a Giants team that has struggled mightily this season, both offensively and defensively, and is riddled with uncertainty at the quarterback position.

      The Giants’ injuries and lackluster performance make it hard to trust them to take advantage of the Cowboys’ poor Thanksgiving history. At the same time, betting on Dallas to overcome these trends feels equally unappealing.

      Ultimately, this game presents too many conflicting factors and not enough value to confidently take a side. We\u2019ll stay on the sidelines for this one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n\n\n\n


      Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
        \n
      • Dolphins: 1-10 1H Team Total O\/U<\/strong> this season (0-5 1H TT O\/U on the road)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Dolphins: 2-9 1H O\/U<\/strong> (0-5 1H O\/U on the road)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        TMB thoughts: <\/strong>While the Dolphins have struggled to produce in the first half throughout the season, especially on the road, it\u2019s worth noting they\u2019ve shown improvement on offense since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup. His presence has reinvigorated their passing game and added consistency to the offense, possibly making the under trends slightly less reliable than earlier in the season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        If you want to bet this game, we are leaning the Dolphins 1H Team Total Under 10.5<\/strong> or 1H Under 23.5<\/strong>, but tread carefully as Miami\u2019s offense continues to find its rhythm with Tua.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        <\/p>\n\n\n\n


        Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
        \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

        TMB thoughts: <\/strong> Multiple Baller Systems are aligning with a play on the Under 42.5<\/strong> for this matchup. The Raiders will start rookie quarterback Aidan O\u2019Connell, which adds uncertainty to their offensive production. Kansas City\u2019s defense has been one of the league\u2019s best this season, ranking among the top in both scoring and total defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Additionally, the game script is likely to favor the Chiefs dominating early, leading to a conservative approach in the second half. Historically, large spreads, such as this one, often correlate with lower-scoring games as the leading team opts to control the clock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        With a rookie QB under pressure against a tough defense and the Chiefs\u2019 ability to manage a lead, the Under 42.5<\/strong> feels like a strong play in this spot.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Welcome to the Part 1 of NFL Week 13 Newsletter! Each week, we\u2019ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Last week, our picks went 1-2, which brings our season record on released picks to 18-17-2. This week, we will […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":1417,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3316","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3316","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3316"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3316\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3339,"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3316\/revisions\/3339"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1417"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3316"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3316"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/themoneyballer.com\/access\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3316"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}