Game: Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans
Date: Monday Night Football, Week 4
We’ve got another notably low total for this matchup, and for good reason. The Dolphins (1-2) take on the winless Titans (0-3) in what shapes up to be a strong betting opportunity. Neither team is firing on all cylinders, and with both offenses struggling, this game presents a good chance to focus on the total.
Key Trends (since 2018 unless noted):
- When the total is set at 36.5 or less, the under has cashed in 32 of 42 games, with a strong 32-9-1 O/U record.
- In games where the total is 36.5 or less and the home team is coming off a road loss, the under is 15-3.
- When the total is 36.5 or less and the road team is coming off a home loss, the under hits at an impressive 11-3 rate.
- In non-divisional games where the total is set at 36.5 or less, and the home team is an underdog receiving 2.5 points or fewer, the under has a solid 13-5 O/U record.
- The Titans haven’t scored more than 17 points in any game this season, and the Dolphins have failed to score more than 10 points since Tua’s injury.
With two struggling teams, a low total, and little confidence in either offense, the under is definitely worth a look here. While some books are still showing 37, it’s smart to jump on this early before the line moves.
Pick: Under 36.5
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