Hello everyone! Welcome to our ‘Free Preview’ day. For those new to the site, this is a daily article we provide to our premium Baller Access subscribers. Our team went 2-0 yesterday with the featured trends! Orioles F5 RL and the Mariners/Mets NRFI were a hit.
To check out the different terms and memberships we offer, visit this link: Memberships – The Money Baller
I’ve mentioned before that trends don’t always equate to a bet, but here are a few that are most compelling to me:
Featured Trends:
- Cubs: 17-4 ML when Shota Imanaga starts | Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’.
- Several factors point to value on the Cubs moneyline (-120, ESPN Bet) tonight. Shota Imanaga has been solid this season with a 3.06 ERA. In contrast, Ben Lively has a 3.59 ERA but a concerning 4.75 FIP, suggesting he could be due for some negative regression. The Cubs are also backed by a strong Baller Matchup Rating of 6, and supported by an active Baller System that favors teams in the first game of a road, non-divisional series when on at least a two-game winning streak.
- Astros: 0-6-1 O/U as road favorites when Framber Valdez starts
- Rays: 4-12 O/U (1-8 O/U at home) when Taj Bradley starts.
- The trends heavily favor the under in this matchup, with two solid pitchers on the mound. The table below highlights both pitchers’ stats over the last 30 days. Under 7.5 (-120, ESPN Bet) is the most favorable price we see out there.
- Diamondbacks: 17-7 ML as home favorites vs. RHP | 15-3 ML since July 23, 2024
- Diamondbacks: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘8’ (assuming Cal Quantrill and Brandon Pfaadt are starting)
- Keep an eye on this game, as some books have been slow to release lines, suggesting there could be a pitching change. If that happens, the Baller Matchup Rating could change. If not, the surging Diamondbacks make a great parlay piece or run-line candidate.
- Braves: 16-4-1 F5 ML when Chris Sale starts | 20-10-3 F5 ML vs. LHP.
- The Braves have been underwhelming lately, but with Chris Sale on the mound and their strong record against left-handed pitchers, we think they have a good chance to overcome the red-hot Blake Snell and the Giants. Braves F5 ML (-105, BetRivers) is a value play for today.
Here are the rest of today’s trends:
Chicago Cubs @ Cleveland Guardians
- Cubs: 17-4 ML when Shota Imanaga starts.
- Cubs: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’.
- Guardians: 25-9 ML vs. LHP.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
- Cardinals: 6-1 ML as road favorites vs. LHP.
- Cardinals: 6-1 ML and O/U as road favorites when Sonny Gray starts.
- Reds: 6-16-1 O/U when Andrew Abbott starts.
- Reds: 2-8 O/U as home underdogs vs. RHP.
Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays
- Astros: 0-6-1 O/U as road favorites when Framber Valdez starts.
- In L30 days, Astros: 2-13-2 F5 O/U vs. RHP.
- Rays: 4-12 O/U when Taj Bradley starts.
Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox
- Red Sox: 15-5-1 F5 O/U when Brayan Bello starts.
- Red Sox: 17-6-4 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins
- Royals: 9-20 ML as road underdogs vs. RHP.
- Royals: 24-10 NRFI as a road underdog.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers
- In L30 days, Brewers: 1-6-1 F5 ML vs. LHP.
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox
- Yankees, despite being a top team, struggle against lefties. They are 10-14-6 F5 ML vs. LHP.
- White Sox are 1-23 ML since July 12, 2024.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels
- Blue Jays: 5-0 O/U when Bowden Francis starts.
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks: 17-7 ML and 14-5-5 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.
- Diamondbacks: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘8’ (assuming Cal Quantrill and Brandon Pfaadt are starting)
- Diamondbacks: 15-3 ML since July 23, 2024.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
- Pirates: 31-13 NRFI as road underdogs.
- Pirates: 29-15 RL (+1.5) as road underdogs.
- Padres: 15-33 RL (-1.5) as home favorites.
Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants
- Braves: 16-4-1 F5 ML when Chris Sale starts.
- Braves: 15-3 NRFI as road underdogs.
- Braves: 20-10-3 F5 ML and 21-12 ML vs. LHP.
Abbreviations:
– YRFI: Yes Runs First Inning
– NRFI: No Runs First Inning
– RHP: right-handed starting pitchers
– LHP: left-handed starting pitchers
– L30 days: in last 30 days
– L14 days: in last 14 days
– F5: first 5 innings (if F5 not indicated, the assumption is a full-game statistic)